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Increasingly there is greater demand to introduce elements of forecasting, particularly Year I maximum trial potential, during the concept screening phase of new product development.
While early trial potential estimates are not a replacement for more refined and accurate volumetric forecasting that is implemented later in the innovation process, these estimates give manufacturers a better read on expected market performance sooner in the concept testing process than diagnostic measures alone.
In choosing a methodology for determining early trial potential, a researcher must ask:
- What is the rationale for determining the trial potential estimate? Does it make business sense?
- Has the trial potential model been validated?
- What are the applications of the trial potential estimate?
The attached document identifies best practices for estimating trial potential during the concept screening phase so you can make better decisions about which concepts to pursue.
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